Agricultural Products

Changes in 2020 from 2019:

• U.S. total exports of agricultural products: Increased by $6.9 billion (4.6 percent) to $157.2 billion
  • U.S. domestic exports of agricultural products: Increased by $7.6 billion (5.3 percent) to $151.5 billion
  • U.S. re-exports of agricultural products: Decreased by $645 million (10.1 percent) to $5.7 billion
• U.S. general imports of agricultural products: Increased by $3.6 billion (2.2 percent) to $163.3 billion

The value of U.S. domestic exports of agricultural products^[1] rose by $7.6 billion (5.3 percent) to $151.5 billion in 2020 (table AG.1), after falling by 2.9 percent in 2019.^[2] Agriculture is the only merchandise sector covered in this report in which exports increased in 2020. China was the main driver of this increase, with U.S. exports to that country increasing by $12.4 billion (84.7 percent) to $27.0 billion. As a result, China overtook Canada and Mexico as the top destination for U.S. agricultural exports in 2020. Conversely, the largest decreases in U.S. exports occurred in trade with Mexico, which declined by $1.1 billion (5.8 percent) to $18.2 billion, and Hong Kong, which decreased by $1.0 billion (32.1 percent). Oilseeds and cereals made up the largest share of the increase in exports, increasing by $6.8 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively, in 2020.

The value of U.S. general imports of agricultural products increased by $3.6 billion (2.2 percent) to $163.3 billion from 2019 to 2020 (table AG.2). The top suppliers of U.S. agricultural imports in 2020 continued to be Mexico, Canada, and France. While imports from Mexico and Canada increased by $2.6 billion (8.3 percent) and $532 million (1.9 percent), respectively, imports from France decreased by $672 million (10.3 percent). Imports from the United Kingdom (UK) declined the most, falling by $753 million (25.2 percent). Shellfish continued to be the top U.S. agricultural import with the value remaining steady at $11.0 billion. The largest increases in imports came from imports of fresh, chilled, or frozen vegetables ($1.1 billion); cattle and beef ($790 million); infant formulas, malt extracts, and other edible preparations (also known as miscellaneous processed foods) ($735 million); pasta, cereals, and other bakery goods ($646 million); and sugar and sweeteners ($493 million).

 

U.S. Domestic Exports

 

U.S. domestic agricultural exports experienced above average gains in 2020 of 5.3 percent compared to the 2017–19 average of 0.3 percent. By product, U.S. oilseeds experienced the largest increase in exports, followed by cereals, swine and pork, animal feeds, and dairy products. Fresh or frozen fish experienced the largest decrease in exports, followed by edible nuts; hides, skins, and leather; cattle and beef; and cocoa, chocolate, and confectionary (table AG.1).

U.S. exports of many agricultural products in 2020 were affected by developments in U.S.-China trade relations. As described in the 2018 and 2019 editions of Trade Shifts, due to the retaliatory tariffs China imposed on the United States, U.S. agricultural exports to China (particularly of soybeans) fell rapidly during 2018 and only partly recovered in 2019.^[3] These tariffs were imposed by China in response to tariffs imposed by the United States under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (section 301). On January 15, 2020, the United States and China signed the Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States and China (Phase One Trade Agreement), under which China agreed to import $200 billion more in U.S. goods and services than it did in 2017, with the increase split between 2020 and 2021.^[4] Of this total, $80 billion was to be in food, agricultural, and seafood products.^[5] In addition, on February 18, 2020, China announced that approximately 150 agricultural and seafood products would be excluded from retaliatory tariffs. This exclusion list incorporated major U.S. export products such as soybeans and some grains.^[6] As a result of these developments, U.S. exports of some agricultural products to China increased substantially in 2020, as noted for particular products below.

U.S. exports of oilseeds, which is composed almost entirely of soybeans, increased by $6.8 billion (36.0 percent) to reach $25.8 billion. The increase in value was driven by both record high U.S. soybean export volumes (64 million metric tons) as well as higher prices.^[7] China accounted for most of this increase with exports increasing by $6.1 billion (75.9 percent). The large year-over-year increase can be attributed in part to the low base: U.S. exports of oilseeds to China declined significantly in 2018 because of the trade tensions noted above and remained low in 2019 compared to the 2015–17 average. Another contributing factor was decreased demand for soybeans for animal feed processing because of an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) beginning in August 2018 that greatly reduced China’s sow and hog inventories.^[8] The 2020 surge in purchases by China was driven by its recovering swine herd and industry modernization as well as concerns about COVID-19-related supply disruptions.^[9] Chinese purchases of U.S. products were further supported by China’s addition of soybeans to the February 2020 list of exclusions from retaliatory tariffs.^[10] For Egypt, exports of U.S. oilseeds increased by$449 million (45.1 percent), driven by expanded local processing (crush) capacity used in producing materials for the domestic feed industry and the crude, edible oil refining sector.^[11] For the Netherlands—a major import hub for distribution throughout the EU market—U.S. oilseed exports increased by $320 million (40.0 percent). ^[12]

U.S. exports of products in the cereal digest increased by $2.5 billion (15.0 percent) in 2020. In particular, exports of yellow dent corn increased by $1.6 billion (21.9 percent), followed by grain sorghum, which increased by $843 million (162.5 percent).^[13] For China, U.S. cereal exports increased by $2.6 billion (885.0 percent). The large year-over-year increase was due in part to the low 2019 base value—as with oilseeds above, exports had fallen dramatically due to an outbreak of ASF which greatly reduced demand for feed—as well as particularly strong demand in 2020. This strong demand for feed in 2020 can be attributed to sow and hog herd restocking efforts as well as the expansion of poultry production.^[14] Some reports indicate that U.S. sorghum sales to China were further boosted by the lifting of retaliatory duties on sorghum via the February 2020 exclusion list cited above, which made U.S. sorghum more competitively priced relative to domestic Chinese sorghum.^[15] For South Korea, U.S. exports of cereals increased by $275 million (34.9 percent), driven by continued growth in poultry, beef, and pork production as well as limited availability of competitively priced feed-grade wheat and domestic supplies of rice for feed use.^[16]

The value of U.S. exports of swine and pork increased by $874 million (15.0 percent) to $6.7 billion in 2020. Exports of U.S. pork products increased by $999 million (91.2 percent) to China and $96 million to Canada (23.7 percent). For China, the ASF outbreak that began in August 2018 resulted in a sharp decline of China’s hog herd, leading to an animal protein deficit and an increase in demand for imported meat products in 2019 and 2020.^[17] Although swine inventories began increasing in 2020, pork production remains below pre-ASF levels; hence, the continued need for pork imports. As a result, Chinese purchases of U.S. pork reached record levels in 2020, which were further boosted by the Phase One Trade Agreement and the end of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork via the February 2020 exclusion list.^[18] For Canada, increased Canadian exports to Asia, particularly China, resulted in supply gaps and increased demand for U.S. pork products.^[19] These increases were offset by a $129 million decrease (23.8 percent) in the value of swine and pork exports to South Korea, where demand for U.S. pork fell from very high levels in 2018 and 2019 due to high stocks of imported pork for processing, as well as lower demand from food service—where imported pork is popular—due to the COVID-19 pandemic.^[20]

U.S. animal feed exports increased by $680 million (5.3 percent) in 2020. The soybean oilcake and soybean meal HTS subheadings combined to comprise 53.6 percent of this gain.^[21] Dried distiller grains with solubles contributed an additional 15.0 percent.^[22] By export market, the largest increases were to China ($240 million or 35.6 percent), the Philippines ($125 million or 13.2 percent), and Canada ($111 million or 6.8 percent). For China, alfalfa hay constitutes the largest share of Chinese animal feed imports from the United States. Two key factors—demand from China’s dairy sector as well as the Phase One Trade Agreement and the subsequent reduction in the Chinese tariff on U.S. alfalfa hay via the February 2020 exclusion list—helped boost alfalfa hay purchases to record levels in 2020.^[23] The Philippines—despite reduced demand for animal feed imports due to ASF impacting pork production as well as the COVID-19 pandemic impacting meat demand—purchased more soymeal and soybean oilcakes from the United States in 2020 compared to 2019.^[24] For Canada, the increase in U.S. exports was driven by the pet food and soybean oilcake HTS subheadings.^[25] Canadian purchases of U.S. pet food increased in 2020, due to continued growth in Canada’s pet food market as well as an increase in pet ownership during the pandemic.^[26]

U.S. exports of dairy products reached record volumes in 2020, while export values reached $5.9 billion (the highest since 2014).^[27] In terms of value, dairy exports increased $537 million (9.9 percent) compared to 2019. This increase was driven by strong demand from Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, where population growth among young people and the growing middle class are fueling demand and dietary shifts.^[28] The value of U.S. dairy exports to China rose by $166 million (49.6 percent), followed by the Philippines ($136 million or 50.3 percent) and Indonesia ($110 million or 46.2 percent). By product, the value of nonfat dry milk powder exports increased the most, by $357 million (21.6 percent).^[29] In the Philippines, the second-largest U.S. market for nonfat dry milk powder, demand for imported milk powders—which are reconstituted into ultra-high temperature fluid milk—is driven by limited domestic fluid milk production and a fledgling cold chain.^[30] The large year-over-year increase in U.S. dairy exports to China reflects a return to pre-retaliatory tariff and pre-ASF trade levels.^[31] The Phase One Trade Agreement and February 2020 retaliatory tariff exclusions have reopened and expanded the Chinese market to U.S. dairy products; further, demand for whey products for feed—China’s largest dairy import—improved with the ongoing recovery of China’s hog industry.^[32] In Indonesia, the 2020 gain in U.S. exports can be attributed in part to competitive U.S. dairy prices as well as an increase in market share at the expense of the European Union (EU). Reportedly, the EU’s recent environmental policies vis-à-vis palm oil—Indonesia’s largest commodity export—have led to a frayed trade relationship between the two trading partners.^[33]

Exports of fresh or frozen fish declined for the third consecutive year, falling by $615 million (18.7 percent) in 2020. For China—which is typically the largest U.S. export market but was surpassed by Japan in 2020—the value of exports dropped by $197 million (31.5 percent). Exports of fresh or frozen fish to China have been on a downward trend since 2018, driven in part by the U.S.-China trade disputes.^[34] In 2020, however, some important U.S. seafood exports gained exemption from retaliatory tariffs via the February 2020 list mentioned above. The 2020 decline was partly driven by concerns in China over the possibility of COVID-19 spreading via imported seafood, which contributed to a shift toward domestic products and resulted in delays at Chinese ports where controls for COVID-19 detection were in place.^[35] The falloff in U.S. sales to China came at a time of increased Chinese demand for seafood due to perceptions that seafood is a healthy protein as well as rising meat prices driven by ASF-related decreases in the pork supply.^[36] Secondarily, U.S. fish sales to China have also been impacted by low U.S. catch levels in recent years as well as high ocean freight costs.^[37] Similarly, the value of exports to Japan fell by $104 million (17.4 percent) due to low demand from event venues and restaurants related to the COVID-19 pandemic.^[38]

U.S. exports of edible nuts declined by $592 million (6.1 percent) to $9.2 billion. On a product basis, the largest decreases were pistachios, which fell by $378 million (25.6 percent), and almonds, which dropped by $241 million (5.1 percent).^[39] Pistachio exports diminished due to lower production caused by lower yields from the off-year biennial crop cycle as well as increased competition from Iran.^[40] Conversely, exports of peanuts (ground nuts, not seed, unroasted) increased by $91 million (19.5 percent).^[41] Edible nut exports were lower year over year to several markets, including Hong Kong, which dropped by $422 million (60.5 percent), Spain (down $140 million or 17.3 percent), United Arab Emirates ($133 million or 29.8 percent), and the Netherlands ($110 million or 21.3 percent). These declines were offset somewhat by China, to which U.S. exports of edible nuts increased by $323 million (48.6 percent) in 2020. This increase was dominated by in-shell peanuts, which China imports for processing.^[42] The February 2020 tariff exclusion list was a boon to U.S. sales.^[43]

Exports of hides, skins, and leather fell by $438 million (27.4 percent) in value. The largest declines came from the two largest product groups: whole raw hides and skins of bovine or equine animals dropped by $163 million (24.0 percent) and wet blue hides decreased by $104 million (25.5 percent).^[44] The drop in whole raw hides and skins was driven by lower prices despite higher volumes, while prices and volumes were both down for wet blue hides. Weaker global demand and declining prices have negatively impacted U.S. exports of hides, skins, and leather in recent years and was further exacerbated in 2020 by COVID-19-related disruptions to U.S. cattle and beef markets.^[45]

U.S. exports of cattle and beef decreased by $410 (5.2 percent) million. Exports to Mexico fell by $207 million (20.5 percent) and exports to South Korea fell by $122 million (6.7 percent). For Mexico, an economic recession caused households to switch to lower priced meats, and the COVID-19 pandemic greatly reduced demand for beef in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector.^[46] For South Korea, competition from higher domestic production, as well as COVID-19-related reductions in restaurant and institutional demand, led to reduced imports of beef.^[47] This decrease was partially offset by an increase in the value of exports to China by $201 million (234.5 percent) where demand for beef increased due to ASF.^[48] U.S. exports to China were further bolstered by the Phase One Trade Agreement and removal of retaliatory tariffs via the February 2020 exclusion list.^[49]

U.S. General Imports

U.S. imports of agricultural products increased by $3.6 billion (2.2 percent) in 2020. On a product basis, imports of fresh, chilled, or frozen vegetables increased the most, followed by cattle and beef; miscellaneous processed foods; pasta, cereals, and other bakery goods; and sugar and other sweeteners. Conversely, imports of fresh or frozen fish, distilled spirits, edible nuts, fruit and vegetable juices, and wine and certain other fermented beverages decreased.

U.S. imports of fresh, chilled, or frozen vegetables increased by $1.1 billion (11.7 percent) from 2019 to 2020. This increase was attributable to several factors that negatively impacted U.S. production, including adverse weather conditions as well as crop losses due to COVID-19-related market disruptions. As a result, higher imports served to fill supply gaps.^[50] The two largest suppliers of fresh, chilled, or frozen vegetables to the United States, Mexico, and Canada, also saw the largest gains in 2020: imports from Mexico increased by $774 million (12.1 percent), while imports from Canada increased by $257 million (15.0 percent). On a product basis, imports of fresh or chilled tomatoes increased by $515 million (22.5 percent), while bell peppers increased by $129 million (9.5 percent).^[51] Higher prices were the main driver of the increase in the tomato import value, as volumes were up only slightly. For Mexico, the largest supplier of tomatoes to the United States, poor weather as well as labor challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic dampened Mexican tomato production in 2020, causing tighter supplies and higher prices.^[52] The increase in bell pepper imports was driven by several factors, including an 11 percent decline in U.S. production in 2020.^[53] According to analysis by USDA, an additional factor may have been the longer-term trend of increasing market share for imported bell peppers in the United States as rising incomes have fueled demand for higher-priced products, particularly premium greenhouse-produced bell peppers, which are largely supplied by the import market.^[54]

The value of imports of cattle and beef increased by $790 million (10.3 percent). New Zealand and Mexico (the fourth- and second-largest import sources in terms of value, respectively) were the suppliers that contributed the largest gains. U.S. imports from New Zealand, which are composed mostly of beef products, increased by $248 million (37.7 percent) in 2020. Despite a decline in New Zealand’s 2020 beef exports and China having surpassed the United States as New Zealand’s largest beef export market in 2019, the United States not only increased imports of New Zealand beef year-over-year but also re-emerged as the top export market for New Zealand beef in 2020. This shift was driven in large part by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused shipping disruptions for New Zealand exports destined for China, as well as high beef prices in the United States, leading New Zealand exporters to redirect shipments to the United States in 2020.^[55] Imports from Mexico increased by $211 million (9.7 percent) in 2020 due to strong U.S. demand for beef imports, particularly at the height of COVID-19-related market disruptions when the U.S. meat industry struggled with outbreaks and meatpacking plant closures. Further, the depreciation of the peso relative to the U.S. dollar made Mexican beef more attractive to U.S. buyers.^[56]

Imports of miscellaneous processed foods (listed in the table as “infant formulas, malt extracts, and other edible preparations”) increased by $735 million (10.8 percent). On a product basis, an HTS subheading covering a large group of miscellaneous processed foods that includes preparations for the manufacture of beverages, non-dairy coffee whiteners, herbal teas, and flavored honey made up the largest share of this increase, increasing by $558 million (10.1 percent) in 2020.^[57] Imports from Singapore, the largest U.S. import source of miscellaneous processed foods, saw the largest year-over-year gain, increasing by $231 million (7.8 percent). Nearly all imports from Singapore in this product group were of preparations for the manufacture of beverages (the value of U.S. imports of these products from Singapore was over $3 billion).^[58] Singapore became a source of these products only after 2017, following increased investment in the country from major beverage manufacturers such as Coca-Cola.^[59] U.S. imports of these products from Singapore have increased each year since.

The pasta, cereals and other bakery goods digest increased by $646 million in value (7.8 percent) to $8.9 billion in 2020. The product contributing the largest gains was uncooked pasta, which increased by $191 million (32.3 percent) and is particularly notable given that the product group constituted only 7.9 percent of the digest on average between 2016–19.^[60] This increase was likely driven by U.S. consumers stocking their quarantine pantries, as pasta is affordable and shelf stable.^[61] Although the majority of pasta consumed in the United States is produced domestically, imports likely increased in 2020 to meet the surge in demand. The value of such imports from Italy, the largest U.S. supplier of uncooked pasta imports, increased by $153 million (25.3 percent). Total U.S. imports in the bread, pastry, and cake product group increased by $156 million, or 5.0 percent, also driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, as Americans prepared more at-home meals.^[62]

U.S. imports of the sugar and other sweeteners digest increased by $493 million (18.2 percent) to $3.2 billion. This shift was particularly notable given that U.S. sugar imports are governed by tariff rate quotas (TRQs) and that the value of imports declined in 2018 and 2019. Poor weather conditions in the United States caused a rare shortfall in domestic production for the 2019/20 marketing year. As a result, imports were increased to bring additional supplies to the U.S. sugar market.^[63] In particular, imports of refined sugar, including white table sugar, increased by $329 million (78.0 percent).^[64] Mexico, which is the largest import source and exports sugar to the U.S. duty free under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement as well as under the terms of an antidumping duty and countervailing duty suspension agreement, was given first opportunity to supply the U.S. sugar market.^[65] Imports of Mexican sugar increased by $178 million (26.7 percent); however, due to severe drought conditions that devastated Mexican sugar production for the 2019/20 marketing year, Mexico was unable to meet all U.S. demand.^[66] As a result, the United States increased TRQs for other sugar trade partners, including Brazil, which increased exports to the U.S. by $162 million (69.3 percent). The United States increased Brazil’s TRQ allocation by 158 metric tons (103.6 percent) to 311 metric tons for fiscal year 2020 (ending September 30, 2020).^[67]

U.S. imports of fresh or frozen fish fell by $780 million (9.0 percent) in 2020, with imports of fresh Atlantic salmon and frozen tuna fillets decreasing the most ($188 million and $106 million, respectively).^[68] The decrease in imports is largely attributed to pandemic-related disruptions to the U.S. food service industry, which accounts for two-thirds of consumer seafood expenditures.^[69] Regarding suppliers, U.S. imports from Vietnam—a major U.S. supplier of shrimp, pangasius, and canned tuna products—declined the most of any trade partner, falling by $166 million (26.5 percent).^[70]

Imports of distilled spirits dropped by $612 million (6.5 percent). In particular, imports of Irish and Scotch whiskies declined by $808 million (36.6 percent), liqueurs and cordials by $239 million (23.0 percent), and grape brandy by $180 million (9.9 percent).^[71] The decrease can be largely attributed to a 25 percent tariff that the United States imposed on certain distilled spirits products from the EU in October 2019 as part of authorized countermeasures under the WTO Large Civil Aircraft litigation.^[72] As a result, the value of imports of distilled spirits diminished the most from the UK ($682 million or 32.9 percent), Ireland ($286 million or 35.7 percent), and France ($211 million or 7.8 percent). Conversely, tequila imports increased by $804 million (45.9 percent).^[73] Although pandemic-related bar and restaurant closures significantly reduced on-premise demand, imports of tequila increased in large part due to the onset of direct-to-consumer online sales spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic.^[74] Consequently, U.S. imports of distilled spirits from Mexico—the sole producer and exporter of tequila—increased by $813 million (43.4 percent).

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