Author: Mihir P. Torsekar
International Trade Analyst

Change in 2015 from 2014:

  To view changing data, mouseover the graphic below.

• U.S. total exports: Decreased by $18.6 billion (-5.1 percent) to $347.4 billion
• U.S. general imports: Increased by $29.1 billion (3.4 percent) to $896.4 billion
• U.S. trade deficit: Increased by $47.7 billion (9.5 percent) to $548.9 billion

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a group of 13 countries in Asia that is currently (at the time of writing) negotiating a free trade agreement.¹ While the United States is not a part of RCEP, the group includes significant U.S. trade partners, such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and others. Although there is some overlap in membership between RCEP and the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), there are major economies that are part of one, but not the other (see figure RCEP.1 below, which also shows how the two groups’ memberships overlap with that of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN).

Figure RCEP.1: While RCEP has 16 members and TPP has 12 members, 7 members belong to both RCEP and TPP (as of August 2016)

Source: Asia Foundation.

 

U.S. Total Exports

In 2015, U.S. total exports to the participants in the proposed RCEP fell by $18.6 billion to $347.4 billion (RP.1), as almost all the sectors under consideration recorded drops in exports.²> The largest decrease in export value occurred in the agricultural products sector, where U.S. exports fell by $8.2 billion (13.0 percent decrease from 2014) to $54.8 billion (table RCEP.1). This reduction was primarily led by a decline of $4.4 billion (24.7 percent) in exports of oilseeds; of $1.0 billion (33.5 percent) in exports of dairy products; and of $968 million (11.1 percent) in exports of cereals to RCEP countries (table RCEP 2).]

Table RP.1: RCEP: U.S. total exports, general imports, and merchandise trade balance, by major industry/commodity sectors, 2011–15

	Million $
Item	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Absolute change, 2014–15	Percent change, 2014–15
U.S. total exports:
Agricultural products	55,172	61,048	60,066	62,943	54,750	-8,193	-13.0
Forest products	12,927	12,084	12,685	13,081	11,861	-1,220	-9.3
Chemicals and related products	52,267	51,499	50,218	50,403	49,352	-1,051	-2.1
Energy-related products	16,731	16,017	15,641	13,756	10,867	-2,888	-21.0
Textiles and apparel	3,375	3,496	3,687	3,513	3,061	-452	-12.9
Footwear	365	355	351	376	419	43	11.4
Minerals and metals	35,799	32,699	32,873	30,822	26,882	-3,940	-12.8
Machinery	32,438	33,087	32,482	33,842	32,943	-899	-2.7
Transportation equipment	53,215	63,970	69,865	73,935	74,404	469	0.6
Electronic products	67,393	68,032	68,537	70,164	70,470	307	0.4
Miscellaneous manufactures	6,041	5,892	6,103	6,349	6,081	-268	-4.2
Special provisions	6,797	6,512	6,253	6,824	6,345	-479	-7.0
Total	342,519	354,691	358,760	366,007	347,436	-18,571	-5.1
U.S. general imports:
Agricultural products	28,423	31,458	29,840	33,017	32,228	-789	-2.4
Forest products	10,044	10,842	11,172	11,973	12,621	647	5.4
Chemicals and related products	66,425	69,566	68,975	72,874	73,056	182	0.2
Energy-related products	9,864	9,479	10,999	10,719	8,216	-2,503	-23.4
Textiles and apparel	73,872	74,152	77,094	79,275	83,156	3,881	4.9
Footwear	19,955	20,953	21,603	22,543	24,020	1,477	6.6
Minerals and metals	52,955	55,991	57,141	63,366	62,690	-675	-1.1
Machinery	69,613	76,487	77,445	83,012	85,093	2,081	2.5
Transportation equipment	91,342	112,522	112,945	117,661	125,685	8,025	6.8
Electronic products	247,758	258,623	266,067	281,357	289,980	8,623	3.1
Miscellaneous manufactures	69,340	72,204	74,519	77,626	84,510	6,884	8.9
Special provisions	13,199	15,074	15,156	13,815	15,117	1,302	9.4
Total	752,788	807,353	822,956	867,238	896,372	29,135	3.4
U.S. merchandise trade balance:
Agricultural products	26,749	29,590	30,226	29,925	22,521	-7,404	-24.7
Forest products	2,883	1,241	1,513	1,107	-760	-1,867	(a)
Chemicals and related products	-14,158	-18,067	-18,757	-22,471	-23,704	-1,233	-5.5
Energy-related products	6,868	6,538	4,642	3,037	2,652	-385	-12.7
Textiles and apparel	-70,498	-70,656	-73,407	-75,762	-80,094	-4,333	-5.7
Footwear	-19,590	-20,598	-21,252	-22,167	-23,601	-1,434	-6.5
Minerals and metals	-17,156	-23,292	-24,268	-32,543	-35,808	-3,265	-10.0
Machinery	-37,175	-43,400	-44,964	-49,170	-52,150	-2,980	-6.1
Transportation equipment	-38,127	-48,552	-43,080	-43,726	-51,281	-7,555	-17.3
Electronic products	-180,365	-190,591	-197,530	-211,193	-219,510	-8,317	-3.9
Miscellaneous manufactures	-63,298	-66,312	-68,416	-71,277	-78,428	-7,152	-10.0
Special provisions	-6,403	-8,562	-8,903	-6,991	-8,772	-1,781	-25.5
Total	-410,269	-452,662	-464,196	-501,231	-548,937	-47,706	-9.5

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce for the 2011–15 period. These reflect all official revisions of previously published data up to June 2015 (accessed June 28, 2016). Note: Import values are based on Customs value; export values are based on free along ship value, U.S. port of export. Calculations based on unrounded data. Sectors are ordered by the level of processing of the products classified within each sector. aNot meaningful for purposes of comparison.

Table RP.2: RCEP: Leading changes in U.S. exports and imports, 2011–15

	Million $
Item	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Absolute change, 2014–15	Percent change, 2014–15
U.S. total exports:
Decreases:
Agricultural products:
Oilseeds (AG032)	13,106	18,365	16,308	17,717	13,337	-4,380	-24.7
Dairy products (AG010)	1,946	2,013	2,796	3,113	2,071	-1,043	-33.5
Cereals (AG030)	10,650	8,401	7,480	8,723	7,755	-968	-11.1
Minerals and metals:
Copper and related articles (MM036)	4,497	4,506	4,013	3,578	2,415	-1,162	-32.5
Unwrought aluminum (MM037)	3,255	2,852	2,695	2,231	1,813	-418	-18.8
All other	309,065	318,554	325,468	330,645	320,045	-10,599	-3.2
Total	342,519	354,691	358,760	366,007	347,436	-18,571	-5.1
U.S. general imports:
Increases:
Electronic products:
Semiconductors and integrated circuits (EL015)	22,916	20,996	21,259	23,723	29,213	5,490	23.1
Telecommunications equipment (EL002)	55,289	64,453	72,509	79,941	84,112	4,170	5.2
Motor vehicles (TE009)	39,096	48,919	50,768	49,451	54,144	4,694	9.5
Furniture (MS009)	17,588	19,318	20,514	22,115	24,861	2,746	12.4
Decreases:
Petroleum products (EP005)	6,626	7,326	8,766	8,702	6,788	-1,914	-22.0
All other	611,274	646,341	649,140	683,305	697,254	13,949	2.0
Total	752,788	807,353	822,956	867,238	896,372	29,135	3.4

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce for the 2011–15 period. These reflect all official revisions of previously published data up to June 2015 (accessed June 30, 2016). Note: Import values are based on Customs value; export values are based on free along ship value, U.S. port of export. Calculations based on unrounded data.

U.S. exports to China and South Korea registered the biggest declines in in the agriculture sector; the value of oilseed exports to China declined by $4.0 billion, and the export value of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, and animal feeds to South Korea fell by $1.5 billion during 2015.³

In 2015, all agricultural sectors included within the Food Agricultural Organization price index fell by double digits, with the largest price reductions occurring for sugar (21 percent), vegetable oils (19 percent), cereals (15.4 percent), and meat (15.1 percent).⁴ Global agricultural prices declined nearly 30 percent during 2011–15 because of the combined impact of growing world output and decreasing demand from leading importers, such as China (the Chinese decline in demand is consistent with the overall slowdown of growth in its domestic economy).⁵ 

The second largest decline in U.S. total exports to RCEP was a $3.9 billion decrease in minerals and metals to $26.9 billion, largely due to a combined $2.6 billion reduction in copper and related articles, unrefined and refined copper, and unwrought aluminum, among other minerals and metals.

U.S. exports to China for various other commodities in this sector fell by a combined $9.7 billion, including copper and related articles (down $2.0 billion to $9.2 billion), unrefined and refined copper (down $556 million to $18 million), and unwrought aluminum (down $457 million to $1.3 billion), as Chinese construction activity declined. China has been the world's largest consumer of this sector's products since 2002, and lower demand stemming from the country's slowing economic growth placed downward pressure on consumption and unit values.⁶

U.S. General Imports

The $29.1 billion (3.4 percent) growth of U.S. general imports from RCEP to $896.4 billion was principally driven by electronic products, the largest import category from RCEP, which increased by $8.6 billion to $290.0 billion; miscellaneous manufactures (increasing by $6.9 billion to $84.5 billion); and transportation equipment (increasing by $8.0 billion to $125.7 billion). Overall expansion of U.S. general imports was offset by a $2.5 billion reduction in imports of energy-related products (see the “Energy and Related Products” webpage and the special topic chapter for detailed discussions on worldwide decline in energy prices).

During 2011–15, the electronic products category was the leading U.S. import sector from RCEP countries and accounted for one-third of total U.S. imports from the partnership in 2015. In particular, U.S. imports of semiconductors, integrated circuits, and telecommunications equipment from China accounted for the majority of the expansion in imports for this sector. China is the world's leading manufacturer of various consumer electronics, supplying 70 percent of U.S. electronic product imports in 2015. The telecommunications equipment subsector accounted for many of these products, with the release of the Apple iPhone 6s and 6s Plus in September 2015 contributing to a 30 percent increase in U.S. imports of cellphones during the second half of the year.⁷

U.S. furniture imports went up from $22.1 billion in 2014 to $24.9 billion in 2015—a 12.4 percent. This may be attributable, at least in part, to U.S. home sales trends; 2015 was the best year for single-family home purchases in the United States since 2007, a development that likely translated into heightened sales of furniture.⁸ U.S. imports of furniture in 2015 reached a three-year high, with Malaysia and Vietnam (both RCEP and TPP participants) supplying nearly 40 percent of these goods.⁹

Growth in U.S. general imports of transportation equipment resulted from greater demand for motor vehicles and associated parts, imports of which collectively grew by $4.7 billion to $80.7 billion in 2015. U.S. purchases of cars reached a record in 2015 amid cheaper gasoline, an improving labor market, and low interest rates, all facilitating the financing of vehicles.¹⁰

U.S. Trade Balance

The U.S. trade deficit with RCEP continued the growth trend seen during 2011–14, increasing by $44.5 billion to $520.7 billion. With the exception of energy products, the U.S. trade deficit with RCEP countries expanded across every sector during this time period. In large part, this reflected higher U.S. consumption of electronic products, miscellaneous manufactures, and transportation equipment, along with decreases in the value of U.S. total exports of agricultural products to RCEP countries. Growth in imports was largely influenced by the expansion of the U.S. economy in 2015, which translated into increased purchases of furniture, consumer electronics, and motor vehicles, the leading producers of which are based in RCEP participant economies. Reduced U.S. total exports of agricultural products are attributable to falling demand from leading global importers, such as China, and a surplus of global output.

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¹ Negotiations for RCEP started in 2012 and, as of September 2016, were still underway. The countries included within this partnership are Australia, Brunei Darussalam (Brunei), Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam.
² Footwear was the only exception, registering a $57 million increase to $345 million.
³ Official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce (DataWeb) (accessed April 20, 2016).
⁴ Plimmer, “Global Food Prices,” January 14, 2016.
⁵ Terazono, “Agricultural Commodities,” August 12, 2015.
⁶ Sanderson, “China Stockpiles Intrigue,” April 5, 2016; Hammer, “China's Dominance,” August 2012.
⁷ Bartash, “Déjà vu,” October 6, 2015; Page, “iPhone,” October 26, 2015.
⁸ Soergel, “After 2015 Surge,” January 27, 2016.
⁹ GWMI, “Strong Increase,” March 4, 2016.
¹⁰ Spector, “U.S. Car Sales,” January 5, 2016.