Author(s)

Caitlyn Carrico

August 2012
Abstract

The roundtable on quantifying the economic effects of trade agreements hosted by the U.S. International Trade Commission brought together professionals representing a variety of ideas, perspectives, and expertise. The discussion presented in this summary represents major topics that were covered by speakers at the roundtable. Overarching themes throughout the discussion included the need to ensure that both analytical methods and results are accessible to policymakers and the public as well as the necessity of expanding economic analysis beyond tariffs to incorporate investment and services.

Tags(s): Econometrics Roundtable Trade Agreements
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Author(s)

John Giamalva

January 2013
Abstract

This paper uses a price-adjusted index of demand to estimate the change in Korean consumers’ demand for U.S. beef from 2003 through 2011. The paper provides an overview of Korea’s consumption, production, and imports of beef over this period, which included Korea’s ban on imports of U.S. beef following discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the U.S. cattle herd in December 2003, the signing of the U.S.-Korea Beef Protocol in April 2008, and the subsequent recovery of U.S. beef imports. The paper also includes background information on BSE and Korean consumers’ perceptions of the safety of U.S. beef. Korean demand for U.S. beef is estimated to have increased substantially since 2009 (the first full year after signing of the Beef Protocol), but in 2011 remained well below the level observed in 2003.

Tags(s): Korea Agriculture Econometrics
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Author(s)

Maksim Belenkiy, David Riker

May 2015
Abstract

In this article, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies that link international trade flows and trade policies to aggregate (economy-wide) unemployment rates. The theoretical models demonstrate that there is a complex and often ambiguous relationship between trade and unemployment: whether trade increases or reduces unemployment rates depends in a complicated way on the industry composition of a country’s output and on differences in labor market frictions across industries and countries. The empirical studies, on the other hand, offer a story that is simpler and fairly consistent: they generally find that an expansion in international trade reduces a country’s aggregate unemployment rate in the long run.

Tags(s): Econometrics Labor
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Author(s)

David Riker

November 2015
Abstract

This article analyzes the weekly earnings in U.S. manufacturing and services industries, based on data for approximately 164,000 workers in 2014. It estimates the earnings premium in export-intensive industries, based on an econometric analysis that combines worker-level data on earnings, education, occupation, and other demographic characteristics from the Current Population Survey with industry-level data on exports and total shipments of manufactures and services. The estimates indicate that export-intensive industries pay more on average and that the export earnings premium is larger for blue collar workers in production and support occupations (they earn a 19.0% premium in export-intensive manufacturing industries and a 17.6% premium in export-intensive services industries) than for white collar workers in management and professional occupations (they earn a 9.9% premium in export-intensive manufacturing industries and a 12.0% premium in export-intensive services industries). Overall, the export earnings premium in 2014 is 16.3% on average in the manufacturing industries and 15.5% on average in the services industries.

Tags(s): United States Econometrics Manufacturing Services
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Author(s)

Lill Andersen, Ronald Babula

July 2008
Abstract

We review the most cited empirical analyses of the relationship between international trade and economic growth and more recent empirical analyses of the link between trade and productivity growth. We conclude that there is likely to be a positive relationship between international trade and economic growth. There are, however, two caveats. First, we are concerned about the way problems of measurement error and endogeneity are handled in much of the empirical literature. The second caveat relates to the ability of developing countries to gain productivity growth through trade liberalization. To do so, it may very well be necessary to invest in, e.g., education facilities, to ensure property rights and to build up institutions.

Tags(s): Econometrics
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