The U.S. International Trade Commission (Commission or USITC) today released its second report on the economic impact on the United States of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) automotive rules of origin (ROOs), their operation and effects on the U.S. economy and U.S. competitiveness, and whether the rules remain relevant in light of technological changes in the United States.

The report, USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin: Economic Impact and Operation, 2025 Report, is required by section 202A(g)(2) of the USMCA Implementation Act (the Act) (19 U.S.C. § 4532(g)(2)). The Act requires the USITC, an independent, nonpartisan, factfinding federal agency, to submit five biennial reports to the President, the House Committee on Ways and Means, and the Senate Committee on Finance. The next three reports are due in 2027, 2029, and 2031. The first report was released in 2023.

The report’s Executive Summary contains detailed highlights of the Commission’s findings. Select findings are outlined below.

• The Commission’s economic modeling analysis indicated that the ROOs had concentrated effects on the U.S. automotive industry, and a negligible impact on the overall U.S. economy. 
  • The model estimated that the ROOs increased employment, production, revenue, capital expenditures, and profits for U.S. producers of parts and materials.
  • The model estimated that the ROOs slightly decreased employment, production, revenue, capital expenditures, inventories, and profits for U.S. producers of light vehicles. 
  • The model estimated that the ROOs reduced U.S. imports of light vehicles from Canada and Mexico, and increased imports from non-USMCA countries. In addition, the model indicated that the ROOs slightly increased the average price of light vehicles in the U.S. market.
• Three competitiveness factors for the automotive industry are the most likely to be affected by the ROOs: cost, investment, and product differentiation. 
  • The Commission survey found that most sourcing changes associated with meeting the ROOs resulted in an increase in production cost; however, some resulted in a decrease or no change to cost. 
  • Total investment in U.S. automotive manufacturing increased from $27.9 billion in 2019 to $87.8 billion in 2023, before declining to $34.1 billion in 2024. This change in investment is only partially attributable to the ROOs, though investments in parts manufacturing specifically are more likely to be ROOs-related. 
• Since the USMCA took effect on July 1, 2020, the U.S. market share for vehicle sales and parts consumption in the United States remained relatively unchanged. However, other factors show signs of changes in competitiveness; U.S. motor vehicle production has increased since 2020, but still falls short of 2019 levels. Conversely, U.S. parts production also increased, especially for certain core parts, and exceeds 2019 levels. In both cases, these changes are at least partially attributable to the ROOs, according to Commission modeling.
• There were mixed signs of changes in U.S. competitiveness in other USMCA countries since the USMCA entered into force. There is little change in U.S. vehicle market share in Canada and Mexico. Meanwhile, the import share of U.S. parts has increased in Canada but decreased in Mexico. In non-USMCA markets, the U.S. share of light vehicle exported to those markets remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2024.
• Other individual factors­­—the Inflation Reduction Act, labor strikes, macroeconomic conditions, and more—had a greater impact on the U.S. automotive industry. Nonetheless, no single factor was more impactful than the ROOs.

This report also identified several technological changes in the United States that have created a divergence related to the tariff classification or tariff treatment of similar goods in the USMCA automotive ROOs. Technological changes covered in the Commission’s 2023 report that continue to create divergences include new production processes related to aluminum vehicle bodies and increased production of electric pickup trucks.

In addition to these technologies, this report identifies components and processes related to the production of electric vehicles, such as e-axles and new battery chemistries, that create more tariff classification or tariff treatment divergences.

USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin: Economic Impact and Operation, 2025 Report (Investigation No. 332-600, USITC Publication 5642, July 2025) is available on the USITC website. Supplementing the second release of the report is an online dashboard that presents U.S. automotive trade data in an interactive format, and is available on the Commission's website.

 

About factfinding investigations: USITC general factfinding investigations, such as this one, cover matters related to tariffs, trade, and competitiveness and are generally conducted under section 332(g) of the Tariff Act of 1930 at the request of the U.S. Trade Representative, the House Committee on Ways and Means, or the Senate Committee on Finance. The resulting reports convey the Commission’s objective findings and independent analyses on the subjects investigated. The Commission makes no recommendations on policy or other matters in its general factfinding reports. Upon completion of each investigation, the USITC submits its findings and analyses to the requester. General factfinding investigation reports are subsequently released to the public unless they are classified by the requester for national security reasons.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is seeking input for a new factfinding investigation on the USMCA automotive rules of origin (ROOs) and their impact on the U.S. economy, their effect on the competitiveness of U.S. automotive production and trade, and their relevancy in light of technology changes.

The Commission instituted the investigation, USMCA Automotive Rules of Origin: Economic Impact and Operation, 2023 Report (Inv. No. 332-592), for the purpose of preparing the first of five reports for the President and the House Committee on Ways and Means and Senate Committee on Finance as required by section 202A(g)(2) of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Implementation Act.

As required, the USITC, an independent, nonpartisan, factfinding federal agency, will examine the USMCA automotive ROOs and their impact on the United States in an investigation and produce a report. The report will provide information on:

1. the economic impact of the USMCA automotive ROOs on U.S. gross domestic product, trade, employment, and consumers, as well as the economic impact on production, investment, capacity, revenues, wages, and employment in U.S. automotive industries;
2. the operation of the USMCA automotive ROOs and their effect on the competitiveness of U.S. automotive production and trade;
3. the relevancy of the USMCA automotive ROOs in light of recent technology changes in the United States; and
4. other matters the Commission considers relevant to the economic impact of the USMCA automotive ROOs.

The USITC expects to submit its first report to the President and the appropriate Congressional committees no later than Friday, June 30, 2023. The Commission is directed to submit reports on the USMCA automotive ROOs every two years thereafter until 2031.

The USITC will hold a public hearing in connection with the investigation at 9:30 a.m. on November 3, 2022. Information about how to participate in the hearing will be posted on the Commission’s website no later than September 26, 2022, at https://usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/what_we_are_working_on.htm.

Requests to appear at the hearing should be filed no later than 5:15 p.m. on September 30, 2022, with the Secretary, U.S. International Trade Commission, 500 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20436.  See below for important information regarding filing a request to appear at a USITC hearing.

The USITC also welcomes written submissions for the record.  Written submissions should be addressed to the Secretary to the Commission and should be submitted no later than 5:15 p.m. on November 24, 2022. All written submissions, except for confidential business information, will be available for public inspection.  See below for important information regarding the filing of written submissions for USITC investigations.

IMPORTANT:  All filings to appear at the hearing and written submissions must be made through the Commission’s Electronic Document Information System (EDIS, https://edis.usitc.gov). No in-person paper-based filings or paper copies of any electronic filings will be accepted until further notice. Persons with questions regarding electronic filing should contact the Office of the Secretary, Docket Services Division (EDIS3Help@usitc.gov), or consult the Commission’s Handbook on Filing Procedures.

Further information on the scope of the investigation and appropriate submissions is available in the USITC’s notice of investigation, dated August 4, 2022, which can be  downloaded from the USITC Internet site (www.usitc.gov) or may be obtained by contacting the Office of the Secretary at commissionhearings@usitc.gov.

USITC general factfinding investigations, such as this one, cover matters related to tariffs or trade and are generally conducted at the request of the U.S. Trade Representative, the House Committee on Ways and Means, or the Senate Committee on Finance. The resulting reports convey the Commission’s objective findings and independent analyses on the subjects investigated. The Commission makes no recommendations on policy or other matters in its general factfinding reports. Upon completion of each investigation, the USITC submits its findings and analyses to the requester. General factfinding investigation reports are subsequently released to the public unless they are classified by the requester for national security reasons.

The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) has instituted an investigation to assess the likely impact of a trade agreement that the President has announced he intends to enter into with Mexico and Canada.

The investigation, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement: Likely Impact on the U.S. Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors, was requested by the U.S. Trade Representative in a letter received on August 31, 2018.

The Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015 requires the USITC to prepare a report that assesses the likely impact of the Agreement on the U.S. economy as a whole and on specific industry sectors and the interests of U.S. consumers.  The USITC’s report, which will be public, is due to the President and the Congress no more than 105 days after the President signs the Agreement, which he can do 90 days after he notifies Congress of his intent to do so.  The President notified Congress on August 31, 2018, of his intent to enter into the Agreement.

The USITC will hold a public hearing in connection with the investigation beginning at 9:30 a.m. on November 15, 2018.  Requests to appear at the hearing should be filed no later than 5:15 p.m. on October 29, 2018, with the Secretary, U.S. International Trade Commission, 500 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20436.  For further information, call 202-205-2000.

The USITC also welcomes written submissions for the record.  Written submissions should be addressed to the Secretary of the Commission at the above address and should be submitted at the earliest practical date but no later than 5:15 p.m. on December 20, 2018.  All written submissions, except for confidential business information, will be available for public inspection.

Further information on the scope of the investigation and the procedures for written submissions is available in the USITC’s notice of investigation, dated October 12, 2018, which can be obtained from the USITC web site (www.usitc.gov) or by contacting the Office of the Secretary at the above address or 202-205-2000.

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