Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade Agreement Rules of Origin

Publication Type: 
Industry & Econ Analysis (332)
Publication Topic: 
Free Trade Agreements
Western Hemisphere
Publication Number: 
4438
Investigation No.: 
TA-103-027
North American Free Trade Agreement Rules of Origin

Summary

Proposed modifications to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) rules of origin are likely to have a negligible effect on U.S. industry, but they could result in a significant increase in U.S. trade for products covered by some of the proposed modifications, reports the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) in its new publication.

Prepared for the U.S. Trade Representative, the report provides advice on the probable economic effect of 212 proposed modifications to the NAFTA rules of origin on U.S. imports and exports under NAFTA, total U.S. imports and exports, and domestic industries producing the affected articles.

The USITC found:

  • U.S. imports from NAFTA partners would likely increase significantly or substantially for certain products covered by eight of the proposed rules, including certain chemical products; diesel engines for marine propulsion; and smoking pipes. However, the likely effect on total U.S. imports for products covered by all of the proposed rules is expected to be negligible.
     
  • U.S. exports to NAFTA partners could potentially increase significantly or substantially for products covered by 12 of the proposed rules, including sauces derived from fish and non-alcoholic preparations of yeast extract; certain chemical products; plastics; articles of rubber; certain articles of copper; certain electronic products; sunglasses; and various toys and games. In addition, total U.S. exports could increase significantly for sauces derived from fish and non-alcoholic preparations of yeast extract. Any increase in total U.S. exports of all other products is expected to be negligible. 
     
  • For each of the 212 proposed modifications, the effect on U.S. industries producing the affected articles is expected to be negligible.

View the publication at: http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4438.pdf