NAFTA's effect on U.S. economic activity and the potential restructuring of the U.S. aluminum industry are among the topics examined in the current issue of Industry Trade and Technology Review (ITTR), a quarterly publication of the U.S. International Trade Commission's Office of Industries.

Industry Trade and Technology Review (ITTR) contains articles originating from research and analysis conducted by International Trade Commission (ITC) staff as part of its responsibilities to provide advice and technical information on industry and trade issues. The ITTR provides analysis of important issues and insights into the global position of U.S. industries, the technological competitiveness of the United States, and implications of trade and policy developments.

The ITTR is a publication of the Office of Industries. The opinions and conclusions it contains are those of the authors and are not the views of the Commission or of any individual Commissioner.

The current issue (December 2001) includes the following articles:

• Evidence of Trade, Income, and Employment Effects of NAFTA -- U.S.-Mexico trade has tripled in nominal terms since introduction of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, but only part of this growth can be attributed directly to the actual provisions of the agreement. NAFTA's effect on the U.S. gross domestic product has likely been small, but positive. Trade policy in general, and NAFTA in particular, tends to shift jobs between sectors rather than to create or destroy jobs in the aggregate. The impact on workers in some sectors has been relatively greater than on those in others, but the experience of workers displaced due to NAFTA has likely been similar to that of workers displaced for reasons unrelated to trade. This article examines factors affecting the growth in U.S.-Mexico trade, provides perspectives on NAFTA's income and employment effects on the U.S. economy, and summarizes the principal findings of existing evidence regarding the influence of NAFTA on U.S. economic activity.

• U.S. Primary Aluminum: Power Costs and Market Conditions Could Cause Long-term Restructuring -- U.S. primary aluminum production declined sharply in the past year as electric power costs rose substantially in the Pacific Northwest. Although power prices have recently declined, regional production is unlikely to rebound in the near term, given relatively low aluminum prices and declining downstream demand for fabricated aluminum products. Reduced production may portend a longer-term contraction of the U.S. industry, stemming from changes in the contractual agreements between Pacific Northwest aluminum producers and their main electric power provider and rising production of foreign primary aluminum and U.S. secondary aluminum. This article examines the current state of the Pacific Northwest aluminum industry, market conditions affecting U.S. production, and the outlook for the U.S. primary aluminum industry.

In addition, the publication includes an appendix charting key performance indicators for the steel, automobile, aluminum, flat glass, and services industries.

Industry Trade and Technology Review (USITC Publication 3483, December 2001) will be posted on the ITC's Internet server at http://www.usitc.gov. A cumulative list of articles published in the report series is also posted. The ITTR will also be available at regional federal depository libraries in the United States. To request a printed copy of the ITTR or to be added to the mailing list, contact the Office of the Secretary, U.S. International Trade Commission, 500 E Street SW, Washington DC 20436. Requests may also be faxed to 202-205-2104.